As the war in the Ukraine is turning one year old, most Western media are headlining the dreadful milestone. Before the war, Russia used the pretense of a war-games with Belarus to build up a massive military presence at the border to Ukraine. The on the 20th of February the Russian army crossed the border into the Ukraine and began what the Kremlin called the “special military operation”. The true reason why Putin decided to begin an armed conflict with its sovereign neighbor can only be speculated about. Officially he wanted to “de-Nazify” the country (whatever that means). He, and most other western leaders, thought it would probably be a quick war. They were mistaken have miscalculated the Ukrainian tenacity to fight for their independence.
Whatever the reason for starting the war was, the facts remain clear. Russia invaded Ukraine. Bar two minor targeted attacks, Ukraine has not launched any attack on Russian sovereign ground. Russia has used its large artillery capacity to destroy whole villages and towns. It didn’t look like the destruction was aimed at purely military installations. Many residential buildings were hit by missiles, hospitals were truck and townhalls were destroyed. Pictures of cities such as Mariupol remind of those taken of Dresden after the bombing campaigns, everything destroyed.
Yet the reality is that most of the worlds population don’t care, or at least say that they are unaffected. According to them, the bigger focus should be on the China – USA fractious relationship. They are mistaken.
For one, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping is watching the battle closely. If the West support is fading, then surely it will fade too if China attacks Taiwan. Also, if the West is not able to replenish its weapons supply quickly, then he only needs to stretch out the war with Taiwan to make the promise of new ammunition a fantasy. Once China invades Taiwan, the trade between the USA and China will collapse. Each will shower the other with sanctions, import duties and restrictive rules, and it will take decades for those to unwind. This will impact most businesses in most parts of the world.
Secondly, the Ukrainian war is not simply a war between to sovereign countries. It is a war between a thriving democracy and an autocracy governed by a ruler who has bent every rule to stay in power for the last 22 years. The one side defends free speech, a society where every one is equal before the law and a government that upholds human rights. The other silences any critics of the leadership, controls the propaganda in the press and locks up opposition politicians on trumped up charges. Those who don’t care about the war in the Ukraine should decide in which society they would rather live, a free and fair one or one controlled by a single person, because the winner of the war will dominate the political landscape everywhere.
Thirdly, all those leaders with atom bombs or ambitions to build one are paying close attention. Putin is making the threat of a nuclear strike. No one knows how real this threat is, but if the West gives in, countries like North Korea will copy the playbook. A nuclear bomb will become the ultimate bullying tool.
Lastly, the war misses an even greater picture. For as long as humans have lived in tribes, there have been wars between them. Boundaries and countries borders have changed many times, because of war. One of Putin’s reasons for invading was that there is a region which was dominated by Russian speakers. That might be so, but that is no reason to start a war. We must come to accept that borders are lines on a map that outline a country. Most were set not by the current inhabitants, but often for arbitrary reasons. We have a much bigger problem to tackle, however. Climate change will unleash desperate times all over the world, from the farmer affected by drought in Kenya, to flooding victims in the Philippines and inland shipping companies in Europe. No one will escape the impact of the fast-changing weather. Money spent on the wars and the money spent on increasing ammunition supplies is money not spent on fighting climate change. It is a zero-sum game. It is time for everyone to understand that climate change is coming, it will be disruptive, it will be devastating and it will change the way humans are living. We have the ability to reduce the impact, but only if we have the money to spend on it. It is a waste spending such on wars.