The true severity of the crisis is only unfolding as I am writing this. Currently there are 1.7 million confirmed cases, 108 862 deaths and 404 236 patients have recovered. This equates to a death rate of about 6.4%. The figure though is misleading.
The problem with this strain of the corona virus is that it is transmitted incredibly quickly, and that many patients experience just mild symptoms, some none at all. And since the symptoms are very similar to the seasonal flue, many would have mistaken the signs for those of the flu, thereby did not bother to go to the doctors to get tested.
To get a better understanding of the severity of the epidemic, we would need 100% of a population (or the statistical representation thereof) to get tested for two things: 1) if they currently have the corona virus and 2) if they have had previously had been infected by the covid19 virus. While the first test would only paint the picture of a snapshot in time, the latter test (called an antibody or serological test) would reflect how much of the population has already been affected. Since most public health facilities are currently under severe strain, the antibody test has not yet been rolled out.
Most countries started testing for present Covid19 infections, but because of the relative cumbersome test, most have only tested 0.8% of their population. Outperformers like Germany have manged to test 1.5%. One country stands out though. Iceland has tested almost 10% of their population. Their results paint a more complete picture.
4.87% of the Icelandic population sample tested positive, but alarmingly half of those infected showed no symptoms at all, thus were asymptomatic. 0.65% of the infections turned out to be serious and the Icelandic death rate is 0.47%. But even those figures could be misleading because we don’t know how many were infected by the virus. It could have been that at that population has already gotten to the magical 70% infection rates, where the heard immunisation cause a natural slowdown to further infections as the virus can’t find enough new hosts to spread to. If Iceland is at that point the death rate would fall to 0.003% well below that of the seasonal flue at about 0.1%.
Similar statistics are available from the cruise ship the Diamond Princess where after the outbreak was not being contained, everybody was tested. Of those who tested positive, just more than half showed no symptoms and about 18% would go on to never show any symptoms at all. All this would substantiate that the epidemic has spread much quicker and much further than anybody assumed. This is confirmed by a case of the tragic death of a 15-year-old boy from one of the remote tribes in northern Brazil. They practically have no contact with anybody else, but the virus has announced itself in the most remote regions of the world. This death also questioned another feature which was established in China.
Practically no Chinese children suffered from the infections of the Covid19 virus. This held true for most parts, but besides the death of the 15-year-old Brazilian, complications of Corona virus infection of the youth are increasingly reported in the UK and the USA. I see a strong correlation between the countries where Tuberculosis (TB) vaccination is mandatory and those were it is not. China tried to introduce the vaccination program in the 1940’s but they were too expensive for most Chinese. After the Communist Party came to power though, they eventually rolled the program out nationwide, and since somewhere in the 1960’s it was mandatory. Some countries used to have a mandatory TB vaccination programs, some don’t have them anymore. Others, mostly African, East Asian and South American still have a mandatory TB vaccination program. The infection levels seem to be very low in those countries. Interestingly, the countries who have not had a TB vaccination program for long, if ever include Italy, Spain, UK and the USA.
Given the wide range of possible scenarios it is right for the governments to proceed meticulous and cautiously, even if the economic impact is very severe. But because of the risk of losing livelihoods, it is important to paint a full picture of the severity of the epidemic, something that can only be done with the antibody tests.